who's afraid of the big bad [strike]wolf[/strike] global warming?

Discussion in 'Every Day Debating' started by volksmenner, Jul 11, 2007.

  1. Running Wolf

    Running Wolf Join the Madness

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    Overread: It would still have the same effect: The poor ones die, more energy for the rich ones. And it was only writing off my frustration about the ignorance or uninformed-ness of many people. Being sacrastic, etc.

    Kartaron: Well I guess I'm typical European, but I wanna add, that I spent a year or more in the US and I can say that not all stereotypal ideas Europeans have about Americans are wrong.

    1) I never said it's German atmosphere. What I was trying to say is that I do experience the results of Global warming, so I don't trust people who say that it doesn't exist and that nothing changed/will change. So why can't I go skiing anymore?
    Are you talking about the butterfly effect? Because then we would have the same oppinion. The US pollutes the environment way more than European countries do and still, the people in the Arctic felt it first, then others, the Europeans also feel it and Americans don't. It's the butterfly effect:
    "The butterfly effect, theorises that a change in something seemingly innocuous, such as a flap of a butterfly's wings, may cause unexpected larger changes in another place in the future, such as a tornado."
    Little things like driving a car can make the polecaps melt, you know what I mean?

    2) we both should do research upon that.

    3) Politicians who are denieing a problem only increase it, they're far less helping than the politicians you talk about.

    4) Of course there is the possibility, that global warming is actually not happening/ really normal. There's also the possibility of us being part of a machine generated matrix. Can you prove the opposite? No- how could you. It simply depends on how you interprete the facts and which facts you decide to see as relevant and which ones you don't.

    And the question really is- as someone earlier in this thread stated-:
    "Are we willing to take the risk?"
     
  2. Bones

    Bones New Member

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    Whatever...
     
  3. Overread

    Overread Wolfing it up! Staff Member

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    Part of the global cycle is linked to Milankovitch cycles, which are changes in the spine of the earth which affect the distribution and amount of heat reaching the Earth. These have been found to have the strongest correlation to global climatic changes and are the current best theory for what drives global climate changes (read ice ages and inter ice age periods)

    We know what happened in the past and all indecations are that this pattern will repeat itself. As many have argued against global warming, saying that man's effect on the atmosphere is minimal, I will turn this thought back and say that if this is the case, then they better start looking to southern lands, as soon (decades) Northern Europe and North America will be plumited into frezzing temperatures. Granted it will take time for glaciers to grow, but such a dramatic change, to say England, would result in complete shutdown of the nations transport system, and thus most of the country - we are unpreparred for such an eventuality

    And on your points - yes it is not total increase in temperature, but what is important is where that change is, oceanic temperature increases lead to warmer ocean currents (e.g. gulf stream) these then take warmer water to the n.pole - result, increased melting of the poles and increased freash water in the seas.
     
  4. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    I agree that, as the oil price rises (which it does, drastically), then other energy sources are, at least economically, more viable. However, this takes investment time, which in turn, will cause short-term and medium-long term shortage. And indeed, this is happening already (nuclear power reactors, for instance). With a rising demand for energy, I fear we might come well behind schedule.

    I also hope that you are aware that, for now, world production is already falling behind demand. (1.1mln barrels/day avg). If Iraq is not going to run on schedule and/or Saudi Arabia turns out not to want/to be able to increase production, this shortage will increase (double?) in 2008. Speculations already hint at a $100 intermediate texas price this year, which promises mayham for next year if things don't change.

    And I do not think that American domestic oil drilling in exceptional ecozones will compensate enough for us falling behind. Normally, it takes years to drill into the oil field, at which time the consumption/production will have run further out of hand.

    Again, as with global warming, peak oil is uncertain. The real question is, again, whether we should allow ourselves to take the risk. Due to uncertainties in oil winning, it is impossible to predict the peak oil timing. Furthermore, peak oil might be drastic (although, I personally don't believe this will be the case). I would like to suggest the Hirsch report summary for more info.

    As to Saudi Arabia; taking into account the pretty stable oil production in that country over the past few years, I personally don't think they are able to compensate for receding oil winnings in outher countries as much as we would like...
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2007
  5. kartaron

    kartaron Hunter / Gatherer

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    It is going to get worse before it gets better. Its not just SA and Iraq that arent increasing production where they can... Russia and Venezuela have nationalized their oil industries... America is unwilling to exploit ANY future oil production... Cuba and China seem to be the only areas with large find potential that arent making a move to steal the initial investments or restrict production to manipulate the prices. Both areas are too early in development to have any impact on the market. That still isnt the same as real limited supply.

    Besides, consumption cannot pass production, and from the end consumer prices Im seeing we still arent close to that mark. Real fuels costs before taxes are still on the low side. Inflation from fuel costs have been minimal.
     
  6. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    heh - at least I had the care the first time to write "Demand", which is, of course, the right term :). Consumption CAN overcome production, given reserves by the way :eek:

    I agree that venezuela has been "careless" about their oil supplies, not taking gaining what they could. No wonder Chavez is rubbing shoulders with Ahmedinejad....
    Russia... well Russia is just weird, seeking forreign contracts to later force the contractors to withdraw after setting up the drill site.
    And there are some other countries, too.

    Still, I fear (and believe that) the gains from optimalization in these countries would not be able to account for the energy demand increase and the further decrease in production from other countries, certainly not in a decade or so. And it will be too little too late if these progressess don't hurry up.

    And although fuel-related inflation is reasonable given the oil price situation, general inflation is on the high side in the US, and now also in Europe. Especially US inflation puts further pressure on the oil price, mainly because oil price is calculated in US$.

    The EIA keeps tabs on oil demand and production as well as fuel prices and some predictions. Worth taking a look at :)
     
  7. kartaron

    kartaron Hunter / Gatherer

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    Actually two countries, Iran and Venezuela are trading oil with Euros now in an attempt to shrink the dollar but thats a side topic.
     
  8. leo_616

    leo_616 home is where hell is

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    i wish i was on this forum earlier

    i do think that gobal warming is there however we cant stop it the only promblem is that its happening to fast and slow nature cant keep up and the goverment dosnt have a glue on how to stop it so all they do in england is add on TAX sorry green tax's

    also they is some research shown that gobal warming may not be 100% happening and it could be a cycle, it was once said to be a 40 years cycle look back and its funny how the news say biggest strom for around 40 years :duh:

    also the big band is nothing to be scared of it happened it made us
    its heat death and the over serval ending im more scared of or when our sun expands and well earth to close (in the middle of the sun) but who cares really we be dead :faceit: then again its better than every atom being ripped apart but thats like serval billion years away....


    i could go on and on....
     
  9. Overread

    Overread Wolfing it up! Staff Member

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    "slow nature cant keep up "
    This is rather incorrect statment, nature could catch up, especialy mamals, however humans block the migrations of most mamals, plus we are responcible for damaging their populations initially, thus there is less to be lost

    "goverment dosnt have a glue on how to stop it so all they do in england is add on TAX sorry green tax's"

    True government is in it for themselves, however even scientists do not know how to stop or prevent global warming and its outcomes, though there are many theories, they truly have no idea as to the effects of their suggestions, its too big a scale.

    "it could be a cycle"
    It is part of a cycle, however 40years I think is a very old number, the global warming cycle lasts for thousands of years and is linked to changes in the orbit of the earth round the sun (at least that is the strongest standing theorie).
     
  10. leo_616

    leo_616 home is where hell is

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    humans are the werids creatures when it comes to envoment all animals adapt to their surrounds... however humans now change the enviroment with heating for example...

    what i was saying about nature not been able to keep up is kinda true its finding a blance and what humans do is always a part of nature and it because of humans effecting the other animals path routes ect...

    they isnt really 100% way to stop gobal warming the atmospher has always been changing, also what about cozmost radiation which solar flares disrub's and it could lead to later temputer issues as it takes a few years to effect us, as cozmost radition effects the clouds highly..... i think they was research into this and it said that if this was true it would effect gobal warming by over 60% but the decided to go with the goverment with the carbon which only effects the tempurture by 1/3 of a thrid... :confused:

    gobal warming is just being used as a scare tactic thats what i think

    and what if the 40 year old cycle was a part of a bigger much larger cycle.

    i may have to update this post later need to collect my research from my school project...
     
  11. Overread

    Overread Wolfing it up! Staff Member

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    Well carbon emissions can be controlled and reduced - affecting the sun is rather a current impossibility. Also, it is not just changes in the suns energy output, but also changes in the Earths orbit which affect global warming (called Milankovitch). This is the current standing theory, but there are holes in the theory (as there are for all theories).
    As for the scare tactic, I agree many groups use global warming to their own ends, but that is not to discount the real possible threat that it can have to us and future generations - consider that evidence shows that in the northern (developed) nations, you get longer and harsher winteres with summer melt which is less than the build up of snow; whilst in the sothern hemishphere areas (lesser developed - yes I am being generalist here) there was drought - add that to the current problems in those areas and there is the potential for massive life loss.

    And the 40 year cycle - haven't heared anything of it myself
     
  12. volksmenner

    volksmenner practitioner of æsthetics

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    i am pleased and quite surprised by the level of debate this most controversial matter has garnered here among our august halls. if truth be told i would have almost staked everything on the assumption that the overwhelming majority would have supported the position that global warming is primarily if not singularly caused by human enterprise. for the reason that the media and the money interests preach from their bully pulpit.

    however, it almost appears as if there exists an even divide and in most accounts there appears to exist an understanding that global climate is and forever will be dynamic in nature. i agree completely with kartaron that research into new perhaps exotic energies should come as a result of the free market.

    no government subsidization. no government regulation. i can be assured of two things:

    a) no one wants to bathe in environmental waste, meaning minimal regulation on industrialzation does not necessitate the fallacious argument that industry would smite the earth and,

    b) the age of carbon will not last forever, primarily for economic reasons as should be the case.

    i reject the notion completely that taxing me or my business is going to save the earth which as data and common sense allow, was never in any danger to begin with. (at least concerning c02)
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2007
  13. Justice

    Justice New Member

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    ABSOLUTELY the free market will change things. A lot of people have turned against ethanol recently, citing concerns it is "cruel" to nations we provide food for. Also, ethanol production raises food costs across the board. People have been screaming about alternative fuels making things worse.

    Then comes the possibility of creating ethanol with prairie grass. Grass has about a 3 week growing cycle as opposed to seasonal fruits and vegetables, it is unedible by the populous (except in grazing land which would be left alone), and also even encourages the growth and recycling of grass in individual homes. Right now cities are passing out recycling garbage cans, and they've worked real well. Soon we may have organic grass bins that are used to produce the ethanol we need to power our vehicles.
     
  14. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    I fear that free market will change things... too late. As has been said, changes take investment time, and we might be short on that.

    Great, where can I sign up? Recently, there has been devised a method of gaining hydrogen from domestic waste water. Apparently, it's the only method of gaining hydrogen, apart from the green electricity method, to gain hydrogen and not tap into old energy sources. Better still, there's a lot of sewerage around. Those are the creative means we are looking for!

    Still, we are to act NOW. And, although things might not be commercial viable, the gouvernment can help in that area. Politics is looking ahead - and they have to work their magic here pretty well.

    And there are two ways of doing so; rewarding those who invest in these methods OR penalize those who don't. Or both, to compensate one for the other. If this choice is not available, then I fear that system doesn't work. A good example (to me) is fuel price. A high fuel price might look like a fairly random targeting by the gouvernment. However, the choice is yours to buy a more fuel-economic car. This way, only the most uneconomic cars are punished. And if you relief some road tax, driving an economic car might come out far cheaper in the end...
     
  15. Crusader

    Crusader Disturber of the Peace

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    Hydrogen is a great energy source, theres already cars and buses that run on it and as exhaust it only produces water.

    the only problem is that the production of hydrogen even from water requires large amounts of energy, enough to make it impractical next to fossil fuels (which is where that energy comes from anyway).
     
  16. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    Cars currently running on hydrogen probably do so on hydrogen produced by conventional methods, eg., from fossil fuels. It's our challenge to look for better ways to produce hydrogen. One of these methods could, of course, involve solar panels, which coincidentally, are very suitable for application in electrolysis. Sadly, solar panels are currently priced around the anual budget of a small nation...

    Another method, as I pointed out, could involve domestic waste water, of which, apparently, there is quite a lot. This method, if I'm not mistaken, could either involve bacteria directly producing H2, or indirectly by having electrochemically active bacteria producing electricity, which in turn is converted into hydrogen. It's both time for skepticism (after all, everyone's screaming "fire", but nobody picks up the hose) and optimism. In the latter case, this could well be the jumpstart to the long-awaited hydrogen economy.
     
  17. Overread

    Overread Wolfing it up! Staff Member

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    hmm - this thread has taken a change in direction.
    I know its not the best source for accurate infomation, but I remember seeing a episode of Top Gear at least a year or more ago where they showcased a £5 million hydrogen car. However this car was not only built to run on hydrogen but also had been made into the epitamy of electronic support - camerals for wing mirror images - playstation like wheel - plus I think research cost was also added to the sum.
    However an interesting point came out that the car would only run on salt water - which led me to consider that any hydrogen car make that is produced would come with either a built in feature or strong "scientific" support to ensure that it ran on a varient of water not easily accessable to the average person - thus allowing fuel companis to step in and take a profit. Whilst this sounds very very wrong, I can see a posetive link, because part of the problem with leaving fossil fuel such as oils is the amount of wealth, power and influence that the oil companies have on governments - thus give them a means to make a profet - even if it is reduced - acts as a possible appeasment to them and might lessen thier hinderence to a change over
     
  18. warrior_squirrel21

    warrior_squirrel21 blue is my favorite color

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    simple way of putting this.
    The polar ice caps are melting.
    They've been doing that since they were put there. The world WILL come to an end, some how. I beleive that it will burn up, as God said in the Book. You an say Im wrong, but you gotta no, it will come to an end.
     
  19. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    Heh - and will that be accompanied by the opening of Hells gates? The riding out of the 4 horsemen? The killing of the innocent? Number of the Beast, whatever it may be?

    In the end, God is probably right. The World IS going to end in a cosmic cataclysmic event, such as the swelling of the Sun. Of course, we could be swallowed by a black hole, in which case our end would be rather... chilling. But chances are God is going to be right in the end.

    Untill then, I suppose we might as well take care of the world in a way both he and humanity might be proud of. Or are you, under the guidance of the book of revelations, totally unaffraid of the impact on this world?
     
  20. warrior_squirrel21

    warrior_squirrel21 blue is my favorite color

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    I am totally unafraid of this "global warming" because even if I do die, I am completely confident im goin somewere better than this peice of crap we call earth.