I think it's more a question of who will blink first and how badly the eurocrats want to keep their european dream alive. The majority of Greeks, if opinion polls are accurate, want to stay in the EU, keep the Euro but don't want to take the austerity medicine. The problem for those wanting to maintain a tough line is that the anti-austerity bandwagon is gathering pace throughout Europe, even in Merkel's backyard. Austerity is driving the EU/Eurozone growth to a standstill, toppling governments with pesky european electorates not playing ball. There's an obvious disconnect between voters acknowledging that governments cannot go on spending money they haven't got (ie accumulating debt) and the electorate actually accepting cuts to services, public service staff levels & other state benefits when it affects them personally. I think Tsipras is probably judging the situation correctly, the EZ/Troika will fold and fudge a softer landing for Greece because they're too frightened of the possible consequences of not doing so and letting the Euro & EU fragment. If they let Greece fold the pressure by the markets on the Euro and the flight of capital from other weak Euro members will reach epic proportions. Greece really has little to lose as all options currently on the table are grim with no obvious light at the end of the tunnel. The fudge will be Hollande's growth agenda although how they'll pay for it or implement any measures quickly is another issue. What the UK would love to see is European regulation which creates an necessary burden on particualrly small business ripped up That doesn't cost a lot apart from the loss of a small army of EU pen pushers but that's likely to be resisted as it's the dreaded 'Anglo-Saxon' market model and the EU would lose 'power' Personally I think the Eurozone has boxed itself into a corner by dithering for so long and not throwing up an enormous firewall from Day1. They either fold with Eurozone taxpayers taking an even greater exposure to other member nation's debt or they bite the bullet, throw Greece out and slam up a multi trillion euro firewall and suspend the free movement of capital.