Discussion in 'A Song of Ice and Fire' started by EdricDayne, Jul 12, 2006.
I prefer the analogy:
Why bother fighting the avalanche? Youre just goin to lose.
you are the real and exact prototype of an english stubborn churchill-faced goat, you know? hehehe.
martell's lost a lot of their strength since the pre-targaryen-conquer period (i don't know the exact names of the places, castles and topography in english, since i read only croatian version, where the names were translated, like- riverrun is called rijekotok here, et cetera). and they are the only ones still supporting daenerys. since we agreed that the targaryen come-back is a major political issue, their alliance with the High Gardens (did i get it right? can someone paste me a map in english?) would make them both immensly strong. and if the tyrell's are able to seize the legitimate throne by a marriage, it would be much easier to name tommen just a REGENT, who's keeping the throne warm for daenerys.
i think it would be possible...
if i come up with some other possibility, i'll let you know.
i have the very same feeling all the time. but at least he can say why he thinks so, and it's good. he has arguments.
i guess we'll drive each other nuts. crusader and me. he's so fortunate i've got my issues with crusaders, and i'm not yet being cruel to him, but we'll see in time.
Dont worry,arguemnts never go as far as cruelty, I've been driving LDH (Liadan) nuts for a long time but its never gone past healthy debate.
Anyway back to the point.
Let me counter point your arguement....based on the fact that there is a rivarly between the houses, (I'm assuming under your theory your saying theyve overcome this in secert to form their pact?) Why would the Tyrells need the Martells here. the whole business youve explained can be done on their own, there is no contribution from Dorne there. The tyrells have a strong power in kings landing on their own. Jaime is gone, Tywin is dead, tyrion has fled. Cersei is in chains, the Tyrells can seize power through tommen and appoint him regent alone.
Thats even more liekly, since if they can do it alone, why share the prize with dorne, when dany comes back they can claim all the glory themselves and say the dornish didnt help. Makes even more sense since there is the rivalry, or was in your case. they can denounce their once enemies and get themselves the glory.
The onyl thing the Tyrells have there is tommen's sister (cant spell her name). And what can they do with her? Doran obviously wont crown her, anbd since he intends to put dnay on the throne he cant as well use the girl by going for her claim...... the most she is is a hostage, one the Tyrells could care little for.
look at it this way.
dorne has been cooperating with the dragons for a long time. ever since that first marriage. so there is all in all confidence between them two. it is very possible that daenerys or any other targaryen would have little or no confidence in allying only with the rose. that's why they need to have some sort of insurance from that side.
on the other hand, if everyone else joined against the rose, they probably wouldn't have won the war. since there are no more starks in the game (after the weading where rob was killed), and no more tullys- we could have greyjoy-arryn-frey-florent-lannister alliance forming, and it would defeat the alone tyrells any minute.
this great alliance is quite possible to be made. since florents actually have their issues with tyrells (they should have ruled the south, not tyrells), freys and lannisters are together from the start, arryns (here i mean not the arryn family, but that region, i don't know the english name of it, as i said) are ruled by petyr baelish whose intentions are not yet entirely known to us, and the greyjoys could be lured in by different kinds of promisses... for instance, the southern and northern shores.
this is all a MAJOR presumption, to make it clear now.
and about cruelty... :devilbat: hehehe.
the girl is called MYRCELLA. i had problems with spelling it, too. and with the targaryen names. jaehaerys, for example.
I knew it was something like that Ms and Ys and Cs and Ls but i couldnt get the order right.
Oh and asketh and thou shalt receive, and english map of southern westros for you:
now back to points:
Well if anythind they know the Tyrells are fickle, but they did openly side with the king in roberts rebellion, not robert. They only gave up after the major victories, when ned broke the seige of storms end (need LDH to confirm whereabouts that was in the war)
Mace tyrell gave up without putting up a fight.
But thats not to say the dornish are all that good for dany. The martells may have been dishearteneed by aerys.
During the seige of kingslanding, Aerys sent his wife and viscerys away to dragonstone for safekeeping. BUT he kept Elia Martell and her children close, because he didnt trush the dornish, he wanted them as hostages to make sure the dornish didnt turn on him. Not only is this a sign of distrust but it lead to the death of elia and her children. Dorne has some reasons to hate.
But lets remember, Atarg relations might be forgotten because this isnt a targ collective, its just dany, and she is running on what she got from her bother and mormont/semly.
but why would they, the rose is a fickjly house, theyre not anyones particular enemy and theyre a valuable ally. Them and the storm lords who stuck with them after renly are one of the major powers in the kingdom, i dont know if they match the lannisters strength (after robs blooding they armies maybe) but they overpower all other forces. Theyre a useful ally. no one is going to side against the Tyrells because theyre all going to be after tyrells to back them up (The tyrells are the ones who make the difference, renly could have crushed kingslanding with his host, but instead when the lannnisters got their support they crushed stannis)
And dont even imagine they wuld all get together to fight the tyrells, they have NO reason to as ive stated before, the Tyrells only have one major enemy, the dornish. they hold most of kings landing and their only condendors are the lannisters who are in peril at the moment. theyre doing fine on their own. we dont know about baelish, but the freys arent worth much alone (theyre reputation soiled by the red wedding, no one will want to side with them now). The greyjoys are everyones enemies as they seek to pillage whatever they can of westeros. The florents arent noteworthy enough to make any difference.
Nope the Tyrells are doing fine on their own, they dont need anyones help. nce dany comes along im sure if mace is aorund he'll be more than willing to suck up to her all on his own.
if you're speaking to me, i don't get it.
But they gave up, anyway.
Aerys was crazy, i think we all know that.
not just lannisters. the combination of them all. lannisters by themselves are rich, but have no military power. that's why they would have to ally with the others.
they are the ones who make the difference, if looked upon alone. they have the power approximately large as one third of the kingdom. they make the difference, but if attacked from all sides, do you think they would be powerful enough?
of course they are.
but see this. cersei managed to get that little tyrell princess in gaol, ending there herself, but still. if she comes out of the gaol, escapes or is released, it makes no difference, she could very well decide to put the tyrells out of her sight. you know how reckless she is, and how eager she is to be thought of as better than tywin.
don't underestimate the freys. after all they hold all the river lords, not the tullys. besides, they are rich and influential, and if they can't raise and army, they can buy one. and it wouldn't surprise me that old walder frey has power no one knows about. no one will want to side with them, except for the lannisters. and if the lannisters do, every lannister ally will want to as well.
what you say of the greyjoys is true, but listen. if promised southern shores, northern shores, big part of the northern provinces once ruled by the starks, certain autonomy, and a bigger influence, they could be a worthy ally. they're useless on the ground, but as a naval force they are quite respectable. they could completely block highgarden and it's supplies, and many other things with their ships. we don't know what victarion (was it him?) has brought from those far-away countries, and what power- magic or military- has he acquired.
florents could be considered upon as an ally because of their grudge with the tyrells. not that they would be a major deciding factor, of course not, but in the end- it could be them to decide.
not to mention the karstarks and the northern power they have with them. it would be naturally unlikely for them to join the lannisters. but if promised the right things, they might as well.
Nope the Tyrells are doing fine on their own, they dont need anyones help. nce dany comes along im sure if mace is aorund he'll be more than willing to suck up to her all on his own.[/QUOTE]
sorry, i forgot.
thanks for the map.
i appreciate it.
And are likely to submit to anyone who has a greater force than them, theyre the ones who go to lengths to always be on the winning side..
Still, no one has forgiven jaime for killing him, everyone seems to be under the impression that crazy or not, a king is a king
The lannisters are actually one of the strongest powers (their gold buys and trains lots of soldiers). I dont know if theyre greater than the tyrells or not, but surely after all the battles with the starks theyre down on numbers. Otherwise the lannisters are one of the major military forces.
But the rest have NO reason to gang up on the tyrells, especially if the tyrells gang up on their opposition first, with such a large military presence why bother forming a shakey alliance with the rest of the realm when you can from one with the roses, and be assured of victory?
The way things are shaping up its likely cersei wont be out before the girl, since she was imprisoned mainly on crimes that cersei made up, and her witnesses turned on her, the margaery is likely to go free first. THEN the tyrells could very well put cersei out of sight, leaving them unopposed in kings landing.
Even if cersei got out first theres no way she can get rid of the tyrells theyre too deeply dug in, mace is on the council, loras is in the kingsguard, their troops are in the city, compared to the lannisters they have a tighter grip.
But its infinatley more likely the river lors will ignore the freys, especially with the blackfish still about, theyre likely to be in secret rebellion against the freys. Alone old walder has some troops, but not enough tooppose the tyrells, and everyone wont be willing to join up with the frers because of what happened to the last person to ally with them. And old walder having some hidden secret power? Hah! do you really expect mysteries in every corner? because I dont beleive he has anything hidden at all.
No, Tywin alnnister wasnt willing to give them the north, nor were the rest, they werent willing to give up any of the kingdom, for them its all or nothing. And for the greyjoys its the same, euron is out to conquer as much as he can, theres nothing either side will offer for an alliance when theyre happy being enemies.
florents can be ingored because this huge alliance your proposing would never happen.
The kastarks are in ruin, their lord dead, their men only in spitful rebellion against the starks. BEsides, their military presence isnt major.
OK, not reading those posts either. If either of you need me to look up specific ASoIaF facts for either side of the debate, I'd be happy to do it. Just PM me.
See, it isn't much fun to read really long arguments between two people is it?
>>>Still, no one has forgiven jaime for killing him, everyone seems to be under the impression that crazy or not, a king is a king<<<
they never forgave jaime for killing him because jamie acted as a tr****r, and it's the treason that wasn't forgiven, not the old lunatic's death. everyone was RELIEVED to see the old man dead.
>>>The lannisters are actually one of the strongest powers (their gold buys and trains lots of soldiers). I dont know if theyre greater than the tyrells or not, but surely after all the battles with the starks theyre down on numbers. Otherwise the lannisters are one of the major military forces.<<<
yes, that's what i meant.
>>>But the rest have NO reason to gang up on the tyrells, especially if the tyrells gang up on their opposition first, with such a large military presence why bother forming a shakey alliance with the rest of the realm when you can from one with the roses, and be assured of victory?<<<
because of this:
>>>The way things are shaping up its likely cersei wont be out before the girl, since she was imprisoned mainly on crimes that cersei made up, and her witnesses turned on her, the margaery is likely to go free first. THEN the tyrells could very well put cersei out of sight, leaving them unopposed in kings landing.<<<
you said it yourself.
the tyrells putting cersei out of sight and having the lannister's wrath upon them. even if jaime acts all innocently and fairly as he does, you can't expect him to sit peacefully and see his only sister being put away by some rose-loving fat idiot and his dear loveable little slut-princess. in the end, every lannister wants to see the family seize the throne.
>>>Even if cersei got out first theres no way she can get rid of the tyrells theyre too deeply dug in, mace is on the council, loras is in the kingsguard, their troops are in the city, compared to the lannisters they have a tighter grip.<<<
this is precisely the reason why the lannisters would like to have an alliance to make them stronger.
>>>But its infinatley more likely the river lors will ignore the freys, especially with the blackfish still about, theyre likely to be in secret rebellion against the freys.<<<
you can't expect blackfish to be about forever, and you also can't expect riverrun and tullys to rebell in a state in which they are. a secret rebellion, of course. during the alliance in a major battle- possibly. but not before that.
>>>Alone old walder has some troops, but not enough tooppose the tyrells, and everyone wont be willing to join up with the frers because of what happened to the last person to ally with them.<<<
none of them has enough troops ALONE. you keep on missing the very essence of the alliance. it's not important whether freys alone or lannisters alone have the military power, the importance is that they have the power if they're together.
what happened to the last person to ally with them is a terrible misfortune of that same person to break the alliance first by betraying the very agreement. if you recall, it was rob stark first to break the alliance because of his teenage carelesness. if i was lord frey, i probably wouldn't kill rob in such a manner, but i would definitly want no alliance or cooperation whatsoever with him.
>>>And old walder having some hidden secret power? Hah! do you really expect mysteries in every corner? because I dont beleive he has anything hidden at all.<<<
then why is he so respected that both starks and lannisters want to have him as an ally?
it's very possible, rather- it's more or less absolutley sure, that there is nothing more to it, that he has shown everything he has, but i wouldn't really be surprised.
as for the secret power, i was thinking of some mercenaries or something like that, some military power, not neccessarily dragons or magic or something... he has the money to buy them.
and he guards the crossing over the river. that's why they would want him aside. plus, he is surely to die soon, and it's very likely that his son would be better than him.
(now they act according to the old man's will just because they hope to gain his grace and be placed as heirs to his wealth)
>>>No, Tywin alnnister wasnt willing to give them the north,<<<
he is dead.
>>>nor were the rest, they werent willing to give up any of the kingdom, for them its all or nothing. And for the greyjoys its the same, euron is out to conquer as much as he can, theres nothing either side will offer for an alliance when theyre happy being enemies.<<<
euron doesn't want, for example, the trident, harenhall, or the arryn valley. what would he do with it? his seamen aren't likely to accept properties in that region.
i guess i heard cersei calling the north nothing more but a wasteland, or something like that.
but hey--- if you want "all or nothing", then you must first put the tyrells out of business, right? you alone said that there is no one willing to be against them, but it is very clear that no one wants to be with them, either, because then their ally would have to give up too big a piece of the kingdom in tyrell's favour. no, that wouldn't work either.
>>>florents can be ingored because this huge alliance your proposing would never happen.<<<
likely, but not to be cast aside.
it is true, and i agree, that this alliance couldn't be permanent. however. it would work to put the tyrells out. later, each member could wage a war against the others. it wouldn't be anything strange. history is full of such examples.
Posts hijacked by people who type way too much. MEH
Im sorry but i cant entertain the notion of such an alliance any longer, the whol sepculation over it is a waste of time, it will never happen. Im going on the record to say that if the freys, lannisters, greyjoys, florents and arryns ALL ally together just to get rid of the Tyrells, you can have a parade in your honour saying how right you are and how wrong I am, but this speculation has gone way beyond the ones youve suggested in the past.
Its never going to happen so im not going to even further my reasons why that is.
Nah, I enjoy the arguments - it's the typos I can't stand. At least my posts had proper grammar, spelling, capitalization, etc.
i'm no julius caesar to have a parade in my honour, nor am i princess of france. but the idea is good, i like it. if i organize one, i'll make sure that you're invited.
as i said- i was just thinking what could bring to such alliance, i never said that it will happen. guess you missed that sentence somewhere.
i'm sorry for the capitalization, but i just can't do it. my fingers hurt like hell if i keep on pressing the shift-button every time i type a name or begin a sentence. sorry. i hate it too, but i just can't help it.
Yeah, well, it's kind of hell on us too. I know that everyone makes a typo or two, but having a post just filled with it is difficult to read. When I first started using the internet, my grammar, spelling, etc. was horrible. But once you start practicing on typing in proper English, everything comes along.
Omega, I believe that you mentioned the possibility of Jon being baby Aegon, and I said that that was impossible because Jon resembled the Starks and Aegon resembled the Targs. I think you said that I didn't have proof to the latter, but I finally found it again (I'd read it somewhere, but forgotten where I'd found it.)
Being Targaryen does imply that they were strikingly (some say inhumanly) beautiful. That means lilac/violet eyes and silver/platinum hair. Jon is said to resemble the Starks, which means that he'd have a "long face", brown hair, and brown eyes.
The links to how joon looks are typical hints from GRRM towards lyanna stark.
Jon has a long face, only he and arya resemble their father.
And secondly, Arya reminds them of lyanna.
Subtle links when put together lead towards the same direction.
don't starks have black hair and grey eyes?
or did i get it wrong?
liadan, thank you. i got it later, when i read i bit carefully.
crusader, you think that both arya and jon are lyanna's children? could it be that them both are children of her and rhaegar?
Waht? no, I was pointing out the reference GRRM is making to jons parentage or connection to lyanna.
Jon and aray are the most alike in appearance, and arya reminds ned of lyanna.
a link could be made from jon to lyanna from that alone.
Separate names with a comma.