Old Empire vs New Empire:USA,Iran and the Middle-East

Discussion in 'Every Day Debating' started by Foinikas, Jan 8, 2012.

  1. Foinikas

    Foinikas Playing backgammon!

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    There's been some tension lately due to the international community trying to apply more sanctions and other measures against Iran and Iran replied by threatening to close the straight of Hormuz.From what I read on the net a bit ago,the U.S. Defense Minister said that if Iran does that,USA will reply with force.

    The question here is...if there is another war,do you think U.S.A. will be able to submit Iran to its will or will the Persians emerge victorious after any kind of conflict,sort(mostly air and sea based)or long(normal war)?

    Do you think the U.S. allies are willing to go on another war against a far more organized and stronger opponent,than Iraq or Afghanistan?
     
  2. ~Elladan~

    ~Elladan~ A Elbereth Gilthoniel

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    ^ For all Iran's posturing they were held to a stalemate by Iraq for years.

    I'd expect any US-led action to destroy their capability significantly before they even appeared on Iran's radar.

    They (the Iranian hierarchy) have seriously more to lose from any conflict given than oil wealth, which would effectively cut, keeps them in power.
     
  3. Foinikas

    Foinikas Playing backgammon!

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    Yes but if the Russian-built Tor-M1,S1 Pantsyr and...I don't know if they have S-300 yet or not....well anyway these AA systems could potentially pose a great obstacle to any air attacks on Persian soil.On the ground things would be kind of even I think:
    Western superiority vs moderate Iranian ground weaponry(upgraded old tanks,locally built ballistic systems,American jet fighters that were bought by the Sah government before 1979).Mountainous terrain and literally millions of Persians willing to fight for their country.That army is far better equipped and motivated than the Iraqi army was.

    Would the U.S. risk another war in the Middle-East?And actually...would they fight a full-scale war against the Persians?
     
  4. Sparrow

    Sparrow Well-Known Member

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    We went through this build-up before Desert Storm was unleashed... it was going to be the "Mother of all Wars", and whatnot. It doesn't matter what Iran has pointed our way as most of their AA systems will be destroyed by drones, stealth fighters, and missiles fired from ships and submarines, most of which will be well beyond the reach of Iran. Their pitiful Navy will be sunk or quartered, their Air Force will be terminally grounded or shot out of the skies. Tanks will be worthless to them and the Army, if they choose to go that route, will be slaughtered where they stand. And at any rate, it's all just posturing on the part of Iran's government/clerics. They have no intention of interrupting our crude oil supply. But they should watch themselves carefully, because neither the United States or Israel is going to allow them to develop atomic weapons.
     
  5. ~Elladan~

    ~Elladan~ A Elbereth Gilthoniel

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    Yes if they developed nukes or threatened the flow of oil. I'd suggest there'd be a lengthy queue to lend a hand to slap them down. No-one wants a war although the Iranians seem intent on provoking one.
     
  6. Anduil

    Anduil New Member

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    Its not the Iran that will cause troubles, its an Iran with Russia and China as supporters. Then it will be interesting what is going on. Hope that humans will not be stupid to use nuclear missiles.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2012
  7. Foinikas

    Foinikas Playing backgammon!

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    Is that the attitude of arrogance? :p

    Their navy is kind of pitiful compared to U.S. navy.But it they have AA systems that are supposed to be immune to jamming and can detect stealth bombers.What good will be the drones if they are shot down and what good will be the missiles if they are intercepted?

    Personally I too don't think they will do anything to provoke the international community.I don't think they will close the straights of Hormuz but the West is also provoking them by enforcing more sanctions.
     
  8. Anduil

    Anduil New Member

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    29 Tor M1 is not a joke to play with dear sparrow... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system Yes USA got ultimate technology but in battle you need to count the enemy and don't let the pride to guide you. i can tell you several times in history when the stronger bowed to the weaker.
     
  9. Foinikas

    Foinikas Playing backgammon!

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    And if they got S-300 somehow that means they can easily intercept any missiles or enemy aircraft!Not to mention that they have and Army,Pasdaran(the Revolutionary Guards),the Basij(militia)and millions of volunteers,as they claim,ready to fight for their country.
     
  10. ~Elladan~

    ~Elladan~ A Elbereth Gilthoniel

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    The biggest threat to Iran is from their own people ~ 2012 could see Iran's own Arab Spring if Iran's powerbase is hit with a few cruise missiles. Iran is huge, they haven't got the capability to defend it all even if they do have some fancy weaponry.
     
  11. Sparrow

    Sparrow Well-Known Member

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    That's a very romantic view of history.
    I can tell you of many, many more times when the weak were trampled underfoot.


    As for their AA systems... they were obsolete the minute they were installed and operational.
    Iran couldn't even win a decisive victory against the Iraqis, much less have a chance in hell against a superpower.
     
  12. Sparrow

    Sparrow Well-Known Member

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    These are all obsolete concepts with little practical use on a modern day battlefield.
    A million man army that can't be transported from point-a to point-b, that won't have air support, won't be able to see the enemy coming, will have their command and control structure destroyed... will be nearly useless.

    I mean c'mon, we flew stealth helicopters into Pakistan airspace and landed them within a stone's throw of a major military installation, killed bin Laden, and were out of reach in twenty minutes. We lost one helicopter due to pilot error. The equipment and systems used during Desert Storm, which were overwhelming in their own right, have since all been updated and/or replaced with far more advanced systems. The messy business comes when we begin rebuilding a country into an acceptable democracy, like in Iraq and Afghanistan. In those terms I think we have failed and I don't have any satisfactory answers for you on how we might have succeeded.
     
  13. Foinikas

    Foinikas Playing backgammon!

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    Why do you only take into consideration of the Western upgraded systems and ignore the fact that Persian weapons have been upgraded as well?They have even developed their own missile systems,found replacement items for their Western jet fighters,attack helicopters and tanks acquired by the Sah government before the Iranian Revolution and...they are about 70,000,000 people there,most of which are highly motivated to fight against USA in case they attack their country.Yes you flew in and out of Pakistan....with the help of the Pakistani authorities.
    And the Persians wouldn't need to move a million men army from point a to point b because they will simply defend their own soil,hypothetically of course.North Korea,China and Russia have been cooperating with Iran in various defense systems and weapons.If a tiny force like Hizbollah caused such casualties to the high-tec army of Israel during the 2006 Lebanon War,can you imagine what an entire army of the people who trained and gave weapons to Hizbollah could do in a large-scale war that would include both conventional and guerilla war?
    Just a hypothesis of course,but the arguement still stands.
     
  14. Sparrow

    Sparrow Well-Known Member

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    And I agree with you on most of what you're saying here... Americans haven't the stomach for another major mideast conflict, nor do we have the money for it. We do however have the ability to strategically take out weapon systems without incurring major losses. If we decide to act on intelligence that speculates Iran is closing in on development of an atomic weapon, the Iranian government/military will find out just how useful their defense structure is. And you shouldn't put too much stock into what happened to Israel in 2006. They were hamstrung by public attention and international coverage, and no clear goals for a victory. If it had been a life and death struggle you would have seen a much different outcome. It's best you view Israel as a part of the United States, we will protect them at all costs.
     
  15. Anduil

    Anduil New Member

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    .

    My grandpa's answer to your comment sparrow. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuF6x7venH0
    And also do i need to remind you Vietnam??? You have to be clever to fight in a war... If Usa opens a war in Iran then Russia will catch the opportunity to destroy you. Usa is already in the period of the fall. 15trillion dollars debt and no new resources in their ground. While Russia got China as an ally and natural gasin Siberia... as i said you have to be clever... The Usa's trick in China's olympic games didn't work... russia burned georgia to the ground in 3-4 days... and Bush was like a chicken in the TV...
     
  16. Anduil

    Anduil New Member

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  17. Sparrow

    Sparrow Well-Known Member

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    Let me correct you as you are categorically wrong on almost all counts.

    Russia and China are not allies in the military sense of the word 'ally'. At one time Russia could perhaps rely on India... but that too is gone. India has very much aligned itself with America via a western style democracy which in many regards is like our own in word and spirit. We are taking in well educated people from India to take up high-tech positions in this country and we've forged strong trade relations with them. Vietnam was not the catastrophic failure you, and I might add most Americans think it was. We proved to the communists that when pressed we would act on behalf of other countries to stop the spread of communism. Ask the one million - two million communists we killed if we lost that war. On paper it was one of the biggest slaughtervests in history... this was one instance that winning all the battles does not win a war.

    Russia is not going to destroy us, neither is China, and certainly not religious fanatics in the mideast.

    What put an end to the Roman Empire?.. Romans.
    What put an end to the British Empire?.. the British.
    We too are traveling that much tread upon road to self-destruction.
     
  18. Anduil

    Anduil New Member

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    ok what about the resources of the planet??? oil will end soon. All empires fall and USA is not in an acme right now!
     
  19. Foinikas

    Foinikas Playing backgammon!

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    Darn i had written a whole reply for a post by Sparrow but it got deleted :p

    Anyway,I see that Sparrow is overconfident.There is no doubt that America has one of the biggest and most high-tech armies in the world,some might argue that it's in first place others second but we all know that USA's warmachine is among the top 3 best armies in the world.

    Now as for Iran let me put just a few figures and numbers:

    About 1,200 Zulfiqar main battle tanks,around 100 or so Chieftain tanks(British main battle tank before the introduction of the amazing Challenger 1 and later Challenger 2),168 M47 Patton,150 M60A1,75 T-62,480 T72S,200 Type-59,200,Type 69,250 Ch'ŏnma-ho(North Korean tank).

    As you can see they have a variety of British,American,Soviet,Chinese and North Korean tanks.Pretty easy prey for any Western war machine provided the Iranians don't use them smartly and in a way they can gain the advantage.

    Anyway because me posting the figures here is kind of useless you can all take a look at what the Iranian army has here:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equipment_of_the_Iranian_Army#Armored_fighting_vehicles

    However the thing is that if the Iranians can defend themselves from air attacks and ballistic missiles,they would pose an incredible obstacle for Western forces if they choose to attack from the ground.Imagine a population of about 70,000,000 people with about 2/3 being young men,an entire Army split into the regular army and the ideologically driven Revolutionary Guard,millions of volunteers in the basij and other militias.The guerilla war they could wage would be out of any proportion.

    In Iraq the Americans didn't face such a guerilla war because of the relatively flat terrain of the middle and south Iraq.In Afghanistan they did face a bad guerilla war but the Afghani and Pakistan terrorists where poorly armed.

    In Iran they would face hundreds of thousands of well-armed and trained soldiers fighting in the mountains and wherever else they can.

    I mean,I'm not saying the U.S. and its Western allies are not able to smash Iran,but a full-scale war would be...interesting from a military and historical point of view.
    Because Iran poses a much bigger threat as a Middle-Eastern power than Iraq EVER was.Let's face it...Arabs lose wars all the time.Persians on the other hand...won against an eight-year against Saddam's megalomania.
     
  20. ~Elladan~

    ~Elladan~ A Elbereth Gilthoniel

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    Plenty of oil & gas left, much of it off North America. What will Iran become when oil does run out though, what else does it offer the world?

    The commodity to watch is potash (fertiliser), China are desperate to acquire as the world will starve to death way before oil runs out without it.

    Empire is expensive, especially when there's no undeveloped people/countries to exploit. US would do itself a favour by stepping back and letting some other nation (China) step up to the plate.