Egyptian (Middle Eastern) Revolution

Discussion in 'Every Day Debating' started by RayCaptain, Feb 3, 2011.

  1. RayCaptain

    RayCaptain 如朱

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    So, just in case you've been under a rock, Tunisia's government was taken down, mainly because of protesting and rioting. No big deal right? Little corrupt, North African government overthrown... But then Egypt.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Egyptian_protests#25_January_.E2.80.93_Day_of_Anger

    The Day of Anger, as it was called, was when this started. It was peaceful protests. ~75,000 pro-democracy Egyptians had picnics and chilled in what's known as Freedom Park. All was well until some pro-government, homicidals came in and firebombed the protestors. It is said that these pro-government attackers were actually sent by the government themselves.

    No internet. No phones. Martial Law. Military sent out. Curfues...

    A few days ago, Jordan's king disolved the government after being pressured by Jordanian protestors.

    A few other countries are involved in this (if you're interested read here)

    I support throwing the corrupt president Mubarak out but I am also weary of the Muslim Brotherhood, a sympathizer group to many radical Muslim terrorist groups and supporters of Sharia Law, who wish to set up shop after the president is booted.

    Discuss...


    FREEDOMFOREGYPT
     
  2. Foinikas

    Foinikas Playing backgammon!

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    Finally somebody made a thread about the protests in the Arab world.I was wondering what took you guys so long :p

    Anyway,I understand that people are tired of Mubarak.Besides,he's been in power since 1981!!!!!

    But I don't know where all this is going and for how long will the army be in favor of the people.The problem is this: Many prisoners and criminals have escaped or generally found the chance to loot and plunder,to cause disaster and take advantage of the situation to make whatever profit they can make out of it.
    When I saw on TV some museums of Cairo broken or looted I was upset.I was angry.Because above all,I believe that it is a crime to vandalize or destroy history.To destroy historical artifacts.And personally I don't know where will all this lead to.
    Mubarak doesnt want to let go of the government yet.He knows he has to step down,but he doesn't want to leave yet.That makes people more angry.And I'm afraid that people are getting used to protesting so they will be even more difficult to persuade to calm down and stop protesting even when a new government is formed.At some point,I'm afraid,the army will have to intervene because many if not most of the Egyptian people are angry at the police.

    We should also notice that Egypt has a powerful army,much more powerful than when it used to be at war with Israel decades ago plus it is in a very strategic point:
    Near the Holy Land,Suez Canal,connection with Africa and the Maghreb(North African Arabic countries)and the Mediterennean sea.

    So the government that takes over after Mubarak will be responsible for a lot of things and it will be very interesting to see who exactly takes over after Mubarak.Egypt is a big player in the Middle-East and a cultural centre for many civilizations and ethnic and religious minorities.
     
  3. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    lol - well, that's the problem. Revolutions, especially in Africa, have a tendancy to be of the 360 degrees kind; after the revolution, new people with old intentions take over, so that the direction of the country hardly changes. This may be much the case in Egypt, history has proven.

    This revolution, however, has a few elements of surprise. Or, rather, precedents.

    The first thing is Muhamad ElBaradei. He is an extremely well-seasoned diplomat, who has shown extreme frustration with undemocratic regimes in general - and Islamic regimes in particular - in the past. He could be a very interesting heir to the throne, a man who could lead Egypt and the Middle East to new things. As far as opposition leaders go, this is the only man I trully trust.

    However, the most important thing is that the Muslim Brotherhood seems to be getting a slice of the action. The Brotherhood is a pan-Islamic organisation of conservative muslims. They are very large and, it has been said, quite influential. However, they are also quite forbidden in just about any country they're active. As a result, no one really knows their agenda. They have been described as conservative but moderate. Others think they aim for a new Kaliphate. If the Muslim Brotherhood manages to gain power in Egypt, still a pivotal nation in the Middle East - Northern Africa axis, then that might set off a chain reaction as well, one way or another.

    That being said, the war isn't over untill the fat lady sings. If the army chooses in favour of Mubarak, this could be over very suddenly...
     
  4. ~Elladan~

    ~Elladan~ A Elbereth Gilthoniel

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    The opposition leaders should have met with Mubarak to agree the constitutional changes, processes and timetable for elections as soon as he announced he would stand down in September. Mubarak's immediate departure would do little for stability in Egypt. Further demonstrations serve little purpose other than to inflame the situation. A march on the presidential palace (proposed) would almost certainly end in bloodshed.

    I also think that the US & EC nations should have stuck with their original line of the Egyptian government taking heed of the voice of the people, not gone on to 'demand' particular outcomes. Sticking the knife into former allies, especially when those leaders /governments have been propped up/ supported by the west (especially the US) aren't going to build bridges in the Middle East.

    It'll be interesting to see how Israel reacts to all this particularly if the eventual new Egyptian administration is anti-Israeli or they open the border with Gaza. Could we even see a preemptive strike to secure the Sinai Peninsula? A tinderbox just waiting to be sparked.
     
  5. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    This is very tricky.

    African history has shown that a merger of old politics with opposition elements does not end in change; a few key figures are giving top position, giving the ruling class the possibility to have these initiates join into the system of corruption and self-enrichment. Effectively, nothing changes. In the past, African leaders have been able to accumulate power, rather than seeing power spread among and share with the new opposition figures. And Mubarak can easily revoke his vow to leave politics as soon as the momentum of the revolution has been lost - he has done so in the past.

    I don't quite see Mubarak as either a very powerful or loyal ally. He should have been dropped by the west a long time ago. The fact that he has been dropped so suddenly shouldn't come as a surprise to Hosni, given the regime he upheld.

    That fact that he has been supported with $1,5bln in military support anually by the US is an outright atrocity.

    Israel is out of control, there's no doubt about that. If the Muslim Brotherhood would indeed grab the center of power, I wouldn't be surprised to see renewed interest in Sinai.

    That would be catastrophic...
     
  6. Foinikas

    Foinikas Playing backgammon!

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    The thing is that the Egyptian army now has far more Western-type weapons like American Abrams tanks,M60 tanks and like wikipedia says:

    Currently, the backbone of the EAF are 240 F-16's. The EAF also operates 18 Mirage 2000's. It continues to fly 32 upgraded F-4 Phantoms, 60 Dassault Mirage Vs, 60 MiG-21MF's, 50 F-7's, 26 C-130 Hercules, 8 E-2C Hawkeye AWACS aircraft which are being upgraded to Hawkeye 2000 standard provide AEW&C capability.

    Apart from all that they have tons of Soviet era tanks and other weapons systems making them a very powerful force if they combined their strength with Syria and Iran.Turkey has also been showing hostile feelings towards Israel lately so I guess that...Israel could be very concernered about the outcome of this whole thing.
     
  7. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    Yeah.

    Israel's got nukes, though.


    It'd be a very messy war, though. Israel is very serious about defense (or, rather, the military). And Egypt has had a very massive boost in it's army as well. Let's not forget though that Israel is still tbe largest beneficiary of the US military support programme. On the other hand, Egypt easily wins on numbers.

    Maybe, and this I hope, Jerusalem has to conclude that Egypt has become a bite that's too big to chew...
     
  8. Foinikas

    Foinikas Playing backgammon!

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    Personally I don't think they will go to war again.

    Let's face it.They've lost 3 wars against the Israelis.

    The last big war in 1973 was a perfect surprise and the Egyptians advanced very well.But then Egypt "sold-off" Syria and didn't advance to Jerusalem or at least let's say inside Israel.They just wanted to stay close to their anti-aircraft shield and take over the Sinai penninsula.That's why the Syrians were left fighting alone for about a week and Israel smashed both Egypt and Syria one by one.And they even went INSIDE EGYPT and marched towards Damascus.

    Although by today's standards Egypt has a much more upgraded and better army and Syria...well still just numbers and old tanks,I don't think they would both dare attack Israel.
    At least not without help from Persia.

    But anyway,as you know the problem is not a war,but who will control what in the area.Which government will control Egypt and how and what will their policies be.

    By the way.....................something irrelevant but....Berlusconi has overdone it with his sex stuff.I won't be surprised if I see Italians protesting against Berlusconi like that.
     
  9. ~Elladan~

    ~Elladan~ A Elbereth Gilthoniel

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    If there was conflict between Israel & Egypt I'd put money on Israel starting it. They wouldn't stand by if the Egyptians were letting arms cross the border into Gaza.
     
  10. Kelmourne

    Kelmourne The Savage Hippy

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    The Muslim Brotherhood has actually gotten alot less radical in the last couple of years.

    My prediction for the middle east? It's going to be like Latin America was 25 years ago.
     
  11. RayCaptain

    RayCaptain 如朱

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    Well Israel still has Big Bro USA idc what anyone says anymore. That's just the way it is. Egypt is not going to start beef (hopefully) with someone they know they couldn't beat 1 on 1 much less if America gets involved. However, this wouldn't hven be a thought should the Muslim Brotherhood not get in.
     
  12. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    On the Egypt-Israel matter: AlJazeera reports

    Elladan said something about a tinderbox. The truth is that very little needs to happen indeed to see escalation to local war. Especially given the remark about the Muslim Brotherhood.

    On the matter of the Muslim Brotherhood... I am yet to hear an expert (an expert in the know, that is) who actually knows the agenda of this movement. We do know that they are conservative - but where exactly they want to take this is opaque at best. I am actually curious enough to support Brotherhood leadership in Egypt, inconsiderate as that may sound. Apparently, the movement is very large, and a regime change in favour of the Brotherhood seems to be unavoidable anyway. It's a new force to be reckoned with in the Middle Eastern eco system. And untill we know they are for better or worse, I would hold them as neutral.
     
  13. Foinikas

    Foinikas Playing backgammon!

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    The problem is that many people in the Arabic world are fed up with their governments doing nothing and especially doing nothing against their enemies.For example Lebanon and Syria and a bunch of other countries are angry at Israel because of the whole Palestinian matter.

    The RICH ones like Saudi Arabia,Kuwait,Qatar,Bahrain,UAE and Oman don't give a damn because they are rich.Do they like their monarchs?Maybe yes maybe not maybe many of them do especially in these countries but do they care about anything else than the stability of their country?No.Because they are damn rich.They have sky-scrapers and snow in the desert.

    Countries like Lebanon Syria Egypt and Palestine were more angry because their leaders and governments achieved little on political level and very little to make their lives more comfortable and better.

    So the average Arab just sits down and thinks: "No good jobs,not much food,too much corruption,too many promises,too much waiting,Palestine is still enslaved,the Golan heights are still occupied,Israel invaded Lebanon again in 2006,our leaders do nothing to grab the bull by the horns(to put some pressure on the Western world)so...why wait?What's to wait for?No money,no food,no successes on a political level.Just words by the politicians."

    They're fed up.And then come all these islamists who promise them stuff.But that's not the point.The point is............they actually DO most of the stuff they promise them.For example Hizbollah and Hamas built houses,built schools,built hospitals,provided for the social security and health of the poor people,they gave them money,they showed them that they care about them.

    So that's why the Arabs are being kind of divided right now: Between the ones who are more secular and less islamist,but are fed up with the current corrupt and incompetent governments who have been ruling them for years and years and the ones who are trying to find the a solution in the islamist movements.
     
  14. Lego

    Lego God amongst men

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    The man needs to step down, his people no longer support him and the world is slowly going to turn its back on him too.
     
  15. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    Hmm... Might be.

    Personally, I think the Arabs (if ever there is such a thing, when speaking about the Middle East) are tired of their dictators. More imporantly, they are tired of Western nations meddling and interfering. And keeping the totalitarian regimes in power. And I am pretty sure it's not the US that is to blame on that account.

    I think that the Arabs first and foremost want to be left alone by the rest of the world, no longer being on the shorter end of the relationship with the West. The current revolutions are very interesting, as these are very grassroot movements, people breaking free of the bonds. The bonds that the Regimes impose. The bonds that, ultimately, lead to the leashes in the hands of Western gouvernments. Whether or not this is the truth of it, I don't know. But I'll be damned if this is not exactly the feeling all these protesters are experiencing right now.

    I sincerely doubt, however, that this automatically leads to Islamic regimes or radical elements taking power. In fact, the logical outcome of a grassroot movement like this would be a rather moderate legislative power (for now, at least). If that turns into democracy, or at least, democratic elections, the outcome would be very interesting indeed. But, as far as Egypt goes, I wouldn't expect Hezbollah-like parties seizing power, I would be really surprised.

    That being said, I haven't quite forgotten about the Islamic Revolution of Iran. The West had quite high hopes about the outcome there, and we were rather fooled back then. Still, Shia elements in Iran were much more dominant in Iran back then (compared to Sunni elements in Egypt right now).
     
  16. Foinikas

    Foinikas Playing backgammon!

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    Ah I see you already mentioned the Iran thing.I was gonna say something about that too but you said it pretty well.

    Now there are two things I want to say concerning the dictators and the meddling of foreign countries:

    1.The people would perhaps like their...well let's not say dictators because that reminds me of Saddam,their leaders let's say...if they had achieved some real victories in political level or generally did something that would boost the national pride of the country and make its people feel important and strong.

    2.Yes,the Arabic countries especially the ones in the middle-east want no foreign meddling into the affairs but why?Mostly because of the Palestinian matter and because USA and in some extend the UK and some other countries are RIDICULOUSLY pro-Israeli.
    Now,that was not the entire case in Egypt years ago.I don't doubt that people there disliked if not hated the Israelis,let's face it....you can't just wake up one morning and say "oh well screw those wars we've had since 1948 we are friends now".But at least the Egyptians had become a far better and moderate country when it came to culture and tourism.Especially tourism which was the main source of income for Egypt.
    But again,Mubarak had been in power since 1981 and people DO get bored sometimes.When a guy,who isn't even a king stays in power for too long and feels that nobody can overthrow him then it's natural that there will be corruption in the government and the entire country.

    Now one thing is that.Yes Arabs don't like foreign intervention but I want to ask you guys a question:

    Hadn't the French for example contributed a lot into making Eastern countries far more beautiful and cosmopolitan?For example Lebanon before the civil war was the jewel of the
    Middle-East.Beirut was called the Paris of the East.
    Algeria under French control prospered...were relatively and Algiers was an amazing city.I think.

    Well anyway,the people of course had their right to kick out the foreigners and demand independence once and for all and live by their own values and rules and laws.
    But since the foreigners left...........it all went to f*cking chaos!Corruption and incompetence combined with Western interference into the affairs of their countries.

    And again.........he who has oil....is important.He who controls the flow of the oil is also important.

    So the big powers will never leave the Arabs alone unless they run out of oil or something.

    Keep the spice...eeer I mean the oil flowing.
     
  17. Kelmourne

    Kelmourne The Savage Hippy

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    I saw an interview with some guys from it who were urging the general Muslim population to steer away from radicalism, and I think that is a good sign for the region as well as Islam as a whole.
     
  18. ScreenXSurfer

    ScreenXSurfer Better Than You

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    No thread about the Egyptian Revolution? You should be ashamed.

    This is one of the coolest things I've witnessed and nobody is talking about it?

    What are your thoughts on this?
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2011
  19. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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  20. ScreenXSurfer

    ScreenXSurfer Better Than You

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    According to a number of sources, these:
    [​IMG]

    Are Coptic Christians, they're forming a human chain around the Muslim protesters to protect them while they do their prayers and they've been doing this the entire time.

    Those of you who have been paying attention will remember that Muslims did something similar for the Christians during Christmas.