BREXIT

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by anonymous, Jun 24, 2016.

  1. ~Elladan~

    ~Elladan~ A Elbereth Gilthoniel

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    I disagree Turambar. I'd like to see UK exit immediately on WTO terms foreshortening period of uncertainty for both EU & UK. The costs of tariffs for UK exports are already negated by currency depreciation whereas EU exports to UK with tariffs are less attractive & uncompetitve on price. A fall in imports would be good news as UK has a very large trade deficit.

    Only real issue is financial passporting which will mean some jobs moving to the continent but against that is less interference by Brussels in financial services ~ we can kiss goodbye to threats of a FTT, or a common corporation tax. There is no single market for services so whether we're in or out isn't an economy killer. Like it or not London is the deepest market for capital and EU companies will use same regardless of whether UK is in or out as none of the other EU centres have anything like the competencies.
     
  2. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    We'll see. I know you to have been a proponent of the UK leaving EU for quite some time now. You've been waiting for this moment de gloire. I don't disgrudge you the taste of victory - but I could imagine that colouring your opinion on this disentanglement. I think it has.

    But again, we'll see. Who knows, Scotland might veto still. And the EU might take up a friendly stance in the negotiations. This divorce might even end up having been the right thing to do. But, until that time, in the short term, I would expect the UK economy to take a nose dive on the uncertainty that has been created, especially with the fragile state of the economy as it has been since 2008.

    And, for the record, I don't think that the EU is going to let the UK exit easily. I think the EU will steer towards a deal similar to Norway and Iceland. It has plenty reasons to do so, and it has very few reasons to aim any lower, and I believe it's going to be pretty much a take it or leave it situation. Like the Greeks before them.
     
  3. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    I share this opinion.
     
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  4. Cascador

    Cascador Who's Anakin?

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    I have to agree with Turambar on this. Furthermore I'd like to add that my wife, during the first referendum, absolutely didn't want Scotland to split from the UK. But that was mostly because the UK was part of the EU. Now that has changed, she feels that she has to change her vote and many in Scotland think the same. Brexit was a mistake and it's only evident when you look at how many people, who chose to leave, have changed their mind. I can't even understand why a lot chose to leave the EU when they didn't even know what it was or what the consequences would be.
     
  5. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    Whoa! Ani agrees with me for once! I thought I wouldn't see the day :D

    Also: good thing you two got married. She might have been deported ;)
     
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  6. ~Elladan~

    ~Elladan~ A Elbereth Gilthoniel

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    A few issues with this assessment ~
    a) There is no evidence that significant numbers of leave voters would switch indeed on polls specifically on this issue that I've seen suggest the vast majority are happy with way they voted (on both sides), 3% of leavers would now vote remain and 2% of remainers would now vote leave

    b) You seemed to have bought the narrative that the pro-EU media is pushing that leavers didn't know the consequences of leaving but remainers were fully bought into the EU dream. I would suggest the opposite is true ~ in any poll the status quo has apathy and the fear of change on their side and in this specific case the full weight of government, official lines of all but UKIP/DUP political parties, foreign leaders and international bodies ~ despite this leavers still prevailed because they believed in something better. You just need to search youtube for videos of those, particulary young voters, who voted remain who gave their reasons to understand just which camp were utterly clueless on the issue

    c) A second referendum would have been held in Scotland regardless of the EU result. A third of SNP voters voted leave. Simply reality is that Westminster is better than Brussels on an independence scale, powers are being devolved by the former and taken by the latter. All the arguments that swung the vote last time stand now and if anything stack up even higher against independence but if that's what the Scots want so be it, better than UK being held to ransom.