BREXIT

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by anonymous, Jun 24, 2016.

  1. anonymous

    anonymous the king

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    What the actual f*ck?

    UK to leave EU. A sad and stupid day for Europe.
     
  2. Sparrow

    Sparrow Well-Known Member

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    Yes... but perhaps a good day for my Scotland.
    One of the unintended consequences might be that Scotland finally separates from the UK, and elects to remain in the EU. Leave England to hang out and dry.
     
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  3. anonymous

    anonymous the king

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    And Ireland too
     
  4. ~Elladan~

    ~Elladan~ A Elbereth Gilthoniel

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    A great day for UK :) Pretty much everyone I know voted leave. Disappointing to see FM Sturgeon throw her toys out of the pram but an independent Scotland with no UK subsidy, $50 oil, a border between Scotland and 90% of its current domestic market & using the Euro isn't going to get any pragmatic Scot excited imho.

    EU has always, for most Brits, been primarily about trade. Political union and EU dictates have never gone down well as there was no electoral mandate for same. With EU trade falling as a % of UK total and with EU stagnant and financially crippled by the Euro it was always going to be the case that we looked to trade more with the growing parts of the globe. EU simply haven't got trade deals with those areas nor, even after 30years of trying, has it got a single market or provisions within the trade deals it has got, for services which is a huge part of UK economy. Free of the EU we can negotiate our own trade deals.

    Brexit was inevitable either now or when EuroZone integrated further. A divorced relationship based on simple trade will suit UK and rest of EU can become USofE that UK has resisted tooth and nail since joining. UK can be a friendly neighbour rather than an argumentative member to EU. Everyones happy, short term pain for long term gain.
     
  5. Sparrow

    Sparrow Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully, when the dust settles, all Mother England is left with is sorry old Wales.
    Which is like showing up at a whorehouse with some loose pocket change. Best you'll get is a handjob and a smile.
     
  6. AlphaAlex

    AlphaAlex Official Forum Nuisance

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    To be honest. I'm very disappointed in this vote. I feel it is a step backward.
     
  7. Druid of Lûhn

    Druid of Lûhn The Little Lamb.

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    It was mostly old people voting and they voted to leave. The reasons seem to be scaremongering from the part of politicians, with emphasis on free movement through the EU and not having much of a say in the EU decisions.

    But now people want to still trade with the EU and be able to travel anywhere within, just as long as other people cannot enter the UK and the EU does not dictate its rules. For a trade agreement with the EU though, like Norway or Switzerland, the UK must abide by the EU's rules, but without any say this time.

    So people are pretty stupid and now the politicians are all giving up.

    If Scotland were to gain independence, they would have to join the EU; they won't be able to stay in it, as they were technically never a part of it.

    What is interesting with Scotland however is that their parliament may be able to veto Brexit.
     
  8. zmunkz

    zmunkz Member

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    You guys are in the lead, but let's wait for America's presidential election, then we can decide which country wins the "most surprising politics" award, lol.
     
  9. Kally

    Kally Driving my own destiny.

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    I voted to Remain. The problem with this election for me was the same with the Indy Ref - so many unknowns. People have called the Remain voters cowards for voting to stay in the EU and that we don't want to take chances and are scared. Damn right I'm scared, this wasn't deciding what to have for dinner, this was the future of the United Kingdom, the futures of our children and our children's children. I also personally believe it's a step backwards. I know this isn't the case for all Leave voters, but I had many friends sharing toxic, scaremongering videos of the "millions of migrants that would invade Britain should we remain in the EU". Lots of hate, lot's of insults and it was exhausting. Not much has changed either, now they're just smug on top of that. We really are a Kingdom divided. There's nothing really "United" about us anymore.
     
  10. Druid of Lûhn

    Druid of Lûhn The Little Lamb.

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    And now Junkers has been complaining that the UK had no plans for what it would do if Leave won, so you can tell that nobody ever knew what would happen for leave, not just in the long run but even in the short run.

    I also voted Remain, thanks to studying in the UK for three years. Still going to get Belgian nationality though to make everything easier.
     
  11. Sparrow

    Sparrow Well-Known Member

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    There shouldn't be anything united about the United Kingdom.
    England has been, and always will be the bully-boy on the block. I could care less about ridiculous Wales, and even more pathetic Northern Ireland, but it's long been time for Scotland to stand on her own.
    America has tens of millions of immigrants and first generation citizens (of which I am one), and the promised demise of the country so often heralded by the Conservatives has never happened. Conservatives always want to turn the clock back.
     
  12. anonymous

    anonymous the king

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    Even Latvians realize/want Scotlands independency - but on the other hand we are bunch of sellouts.
     
  13. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    I think it'll be hard for England to be as independent as they would like to be. The likeliest outcome now is that the UK will set up a trade agreement similar to Iceland and Norway, who have agreed to remain independent, but follow EU directives regardless in exchange for favourable trade agreements which mirror the EU internal market. Only without a seat at the table. That's basically the same as staying. But without all the veto rights they had. Taxation without representation.

    By now, Johnson has stepped away from his ambition to become PM - which is a good thing. Making the Tsipras of the UK prime negotiator would likely have been as disastrous as Greece's prime choice has shown itself to be. England and Wales (UK is dead) need firm pro-European leaders who are willing to negotiate and make concessions. Because concessions need to be made in order for it to make a smooth transition.

    There's also the off-chance that Europe will basically do the same thing with Greece, and set an example for the black sheep in the flock. That's basically worst case scenario, and some in Brussels appear to seek out this line of policy, and you can't really blame them. Someone noted that the EU has 600 people constantly working on trade agreements. The UK hasn't made one in over three decades. Guess who has the upper hand there? Sluggish and harsh negotions probably wouldn't be the end of England - but a recession as has set in in Ireland about 8 years ago appears to be unavoidable at that point, possibly worse. Not that the UK is likely to escape a new recession, but we're used to that by now.

    The UK is in for an uncertain period in its history. I would expect Scotland to leave, now it has become apparent that secession is the hot thing to do. Northern Ireland might very well start asking questions again, if it hasn't started doing so already. And we all know what that leads to. That leaves the England and Wales - the Serbia and Montenegro of the British Isles - and I am really curious how that ends up.

    Then, there's the matter of rising xenophobia. Tell me, what is the UK equivalent of the Golden Dawn again? Recession and inward facing politics are a breeding ground for that lot, I will tell you. I expect someone ugly to make an appearance - possibly worse than Nigel Farrage....
     
  14. Druid of Lûhn

    Druid of Lûhn The Little Lamb.

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    Don't forget that the result of the Scottish referendum was to remain part of the UK, and from living in Scotland (albeit St Andrews ;)) I can say that although people constantly insult the English, people know that the country has a lot of advantages coming from the UK. Although Scotland is big geographically, it has a small population of 5,3 million (compared to England's 53 million), so may not be that good on its own. A new referendum may come up, but nobody nowadays seems to get the results on these correct.

    Apart from the semi-finals :(, Wales aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

    If Northern Ireland try to go, I'm going to live in the southern hemisphere; it may not be as bad as The Troubles, but there would be some serious violence taking place if they tried to join the Republic of Ireland (and they don't have much chance on their own).
     
  15. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    Sounds about the size of Flanders. They don't appear to be scared of a future without their neighbors? I dunno...

    The speed at which London will be able to glue the shards back together will probably determine the outcome of a new scoxit vote. I would wager a bet that if they screw this thing up for too long, the Scots will become less and less convinced that the marriage with the South is, indeed, such a good idea.
     
  16. Druid of Lûhn

    Druid of Lûhn The Little Lamb.

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    The SNP is in power, so they are much more likely to call for a second referendum (the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon has said that a second one is “on the table”), but the other thing they may be able to do is veto the decision to invoke Article 50, which would probably be best.

    As for Flanders, I've not heard much talk of splitting recently, but then I'm in Scotland more often than Belgium now.
     
  17. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    Wait, what? Can they do that? That's nuts :D

    It's a nice bargaining chip to have, though. And, who knows, London might even be fine with an "Aw, drats. The Scots vetoed? Well, that's that, then". On the other hand, I am quite sure a second referendum would probably be the price set for withholding vetoing rights. And it was a pretty close deal last time, as I remembered. The proposition has changed, and I do think that some of the voters will be swayed by the whole EU deal.
     
  18. Druid of Lûhn

    Druid of Lûhn The Little Lamb.

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    They're not certain whether they can veto it or not, but if they can it would be brilliant. It would get Parliament to back out of Brexit without seeming undemocratic (as the referendum is not legally binding).

    Results were 55,3% - 44,7%, with the main problem being that Scotland would probably have to join the EU as a new country instead of remaining in it, which is a new uncertainty to deal with, especially if the then-diminished UK would be leaving.
     
  19. ~Elladan~

    ~Elladan~ A Elbereth Gilthoniel

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    That's not what most Brexiters want nor do most think it's a solution that would be acceptable given continuing free movement, contributions & EU regulation. Most would prefer a FTA or as worst case fallback WTO terms (if the latter then 2yr exit not necessary it can be pretty much immediately).

    UK isn't dead, given a choice between UK (80% of trade) or EU (15%) the Scots will stay put especially as the FTA's come rolling in.

    Thankfully UK has decent friends... I understand NZ & Australia who obviously share our head of state have already offered senior negotiators which have been accepted. EU can take their bat home but then France & Germany both have elections in 2017 so are they going to throw 100s of thousands of their own workers on the scrapheap to prove a point? UK is EU's biggest trading partner with a net deficit of c£65bn with EU.

    Uncertainty yes, break up of UK almost certainly no, exciting future yes... already dozens of countries apparently keen to sign trade deals.

    Small numbers of racist idiots. 17.4m voted leave and we certainly are not racists. Interesting that it's Remainers (Theresa May, Phillip Hammond) who have raised a question mark over EU citizens living in the UK when all the main leave campaigns have been clear throughout that those legally here would have full right to remain post Brexit.
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2016
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  20. Turambar

    Turambar Harebrained Staff Member

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    You misunderstand the point the EU has to decide whether it would want to make it. If they choose to drive home the point that any Western European nation is better off in- than outside the EU, then they will have to do a Greece. Whilst this might cost some jobs, this effect will be much stronger on the other side of the North Sea.

    The UK would probably want to avoid finding out, though. That means that...
    ... this is not very likely. The whole thing could even be a bluff by the EU, and that wouldn't matter.

    I think we also have to agree that, basically on all points, the negotiation position of the EU is better than that of the UK. Like it or not, the UK needs the EU harder than the other way around. The UK is under quite a lot of time pressure, too.

    But, to get back to the main point - I think that a crumbling EU might even be more dangerous to jobs in Germany and France than harsh negotiations with the UK would be. The French are a bit of a weird lot, but the Germans appear to understand such matters.